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If Endangered Species Act ends, no amount of money can bring back extinct animals | Opinion

Recently, the United Nations, a nonpartisan global authority, issued a sad and sobering report stating that under the present conditions, there is a strong possibility that up to 1 million species of wildlife will become extinct within the next several decades.

Iranian tanker sought by US heading toward Greece

An Iranian supertanker with $130 million worth of light crude oil that the U.S. suspects is tied to a sanctioned organization left Gibraltar and was heading east into the Mediterranean Sea on Monday, with its next destination reported to be Greece. The Iran-flagged Adrian Darya 1, previously named Grace 1, set course for Kalamata, Greece, with an estimated arrival on Aug. 25, according to ship tracking service MarineTraffic. The vessel left Gibraltar late Sunday after having been detained for a month in the British overseas territory for allegedly attempting to breach European Union sanctions on Syria.

Macron, Putin see chance on Ukraine but clash on Syria

Bormes-les-Mimosas (France) (AFP) - French President Emmanuel Macron and Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday agreed changes in Ukraine had bolstered the chances of peace in its east but clashed on Syria, as the Russian leader made a rare bilateral visit to a key EU power. Macron, who hosted Putin at his summer residence in southern France, made clear he wanted to keep contacts with Moscow alive on a range of issues even at a time of spiralling tensions with the West. Speaking as their talks got underway, the pair both expressed optimism that the arrival of Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine's president had improved the chances of ending the half-decade conflict.

Russian panel eyes alleged foreign interference in protests

Russia's lower house of parliament on Monday set up a commission to examine alleged cases of foreign interference in connection with a series of protests against the Moscow city council election, while President Vladimir Putin defended the harsh police crackdown on some of the demonstrations. The commission established by the State Duma holds its first session on Aug. 30. This summer, thousands of people have demonstrated -- in both authorized and unsanctioned protests -- against the election board's exclusion of some opposition and independent candidates from the Sept. 8 election.

Putin says Russian nuclear explosion poses no threat

Russian President Vladimir Putin says there is no threat from a deadly explosion at a secretive naval weapons testing range that has prompted international concern about radiation leaks. Putin said Monday in France that experts sent to the site on the White Sea are "controlling the situation" and no "serious changes" have been reported. Russian authorities have given contradictory information about what happened.

Airstrikes hit near Turkish convoy in Syria, raising tension

Airstrikes targeted a Turkish army convoy inside a rebel-held part of northwestern Syria on Monday, killing three civilians and wounding 12 others, the Turkish Defense Ministry said. Syria, however, said the Turkish convoy was carrying ammunition to rebels who have lost ground this month amid a government offensive to retake their last stronghold in the country. The incident ratcheted up tensions in the region, a current ground zero in Syria's long-running civil war in which Turkish, Russian, U.S. and Iranian interests are fighting.

Iran Warns U.S. Against Seizing Oil Tanker Headed to Greece

(Bloomberg) -- Iran warned the U.S. against apprehending a supertanker carrying the Middle East country’s oil and said it couldn’t be clear on the ship’s ultimate destination, leaving the fate of the vessel uncertain as it sailed into the Mediterranean Sea from Gibraltar, where it had been detained.The tanker, formerly called the Grace 1 and re-named the Adrian Darya 1, was signaling Kalamata, Greece -- at least for now -- with an arrival date of Aug. 26, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg at 5:25 p.m. London time. It had previously been showing an arrival date of Aug. 25.The vessel left Gibraltar Sunday night after being detained there since early July, when British forces seized it on suspicion of carrying oil to Syria in violation of European sanctions. The U.S., which has sanctions against Iran, is seeking to prevent anyone from doing business with the ship.Iranian Crude Tanker Leaves Gibraltar Waters: What Happens Next?U.S. sanctions mean Iran cannot be “very transparent” about the destination of the tanker, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said at a press conference in Helsinki. He said the U.S. is trying to “bully others from purchasing our oil” and that he hopes the release of the vessel will de-escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf.A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.The incident is one of several in recent months that have strained relations between Iran and the West, following the U.S. reinstatement of sanctions on the Islamic Republic last year. Iran has maintained that the ship’s original detention on July 4 was unlawful. The Persian Gulf state continues to hold a U.K.-flagged tanker, the Stena Impero. Aggression in the region has threatened shipping in recent months in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical waterway for oil supplies.“The U.S. surely can’t seize the Iranian tanker and, if it does, it would pose a threat to international maritime security,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said. Iran warned the U.S. via “diplomatic channels,” including Switzerland, against interfering with the tanker, in international waters, Mousavi said at a news conference in Tehran. Swiss diplomats serve as interlocutors between the U.S. and Iran.Destination UnclearIt’s not known where the Iranian vessel is ultimately headed. Greek authorities haven’t received formal notification that the vessel intends to head to a port in the country, according to a spokesman for Greece’s coast guard. Kalamata’s port usually serves pleasure craft like sailboats and cruise ships, data compiled by Bloomberg show.The waters off Kalamata could be a possible location for ship-to-ship cargo transfers, according to two vessel brokers without specific information about the tanker’s plans. A ship’s destination is entered manually into its Automatic Identification System and is picked up by vessel-tracking. The destinations can be altered multiple times on the same journey.Gibraltar rejected an attempt by the U.S. to block the Iranian supertanker, saying that EU regulations don’t allow it to seek a court order to detain the vessel.U.S. ComplaintA complaint unsealed in Washington stated that “Oil Tanker ‘Grace 1,’ all petroleum aboard it and $995,000 are subject to forfeiture,” according to a Justice Department statement. The statement alleges a “scheme to unlawfully access the U.S. financial system to support illicit shipments” of oil from Iran to Syria in violation of U.S. sanctions, money laundering and terrorism statutes.Gibraltar last week released the vessel, after the government said Iran had provided assurances that the ship would not sail to a destination sanctioned by the EU. In response, the U.S. said it was gravely disappointed with Britain, and it warned that ports, banks and anyone else who does business with the vessel or its crew might be subject to sanctions, according to two administration officials.(Updates vessel’s estimated arrival date in second paragraph, request for comment in fifth. An earlier version of this story included an incorrect spelling for a port official in Kalamata, Greece.)\--With assistance from Serene Cheong, Anthony DiPaola, Alex Longley, Julian Lee, Paul Tugwell, Kati Pohjanpalo and Nick Wadhams.To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Wingfield in London at bwingfield3@bloomberg.net;Arsalan Shahla in Tehran at ashahla@bloomberg.net;Verity Ratcliffe in Dubai at vratcliffe1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net, Brian Wingfield, Rachel GrahamFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Palestinian leader fires advisers, wants bonuses returned

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday laid off all of his advisers and ordered a former prime minister and other ex-Cabinet ministers to return tens of thousands of dollars from a pay raise he had secretly approved. Palestinian officials said the decisions, announced in official statements, came as part of efforts to cut costs and recuperate funds after Israel stopped delivering tax revenues earlier this year. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, has long faced charges of corruption and mismanagement.

A look at the Islamic State affiliate's rise in Afghanistan

A suicide bombing at a wedding party in Kabul claimed by a local Islamic State affiliate has renewed fears about the growing threat posed by its thousands of fighters, as well as their ability to plot global attacks from a stronghold in the forbidding mountains of northeastern Afghanistan. The attack came as the Taliban appear to be nearing a deal with the U.S. to end nearly 18 years of fighting. Now Washington hopes the Taliban can help rein in IS fighters, even as some worry that Taliban fighters, disenchanted by a peace deal, could join IS.

Omar, Tlaib to discuss Israel, Palestine travel restrictions

Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan are talking about travel restrictions to Israel and Palestine after they were denied entry into the Jewish state last week. At the urging of President Donald Trump, Israel denied entry to the two Muslim representatives over their support for the Palestinian-led boycott movement. Tlaib and Omar, who had planned to visit Jerusalem and the Israeli-occupied West Bank on a tour organized by a Palestinian group, are outspoken critics of Israel's treatment of the Palestinians and support the Palestinian-led international movement boycotting Israel.

US extends ban on passports for North Korea travel

The Trump administration is extending a ban on the use of U.S. passports for travel to North Korea for another year. A State Department notice released Monday says the ban will remain in place until Aug. 31, 2020, unless revoked by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (pahm-PAY'-oh). The ban was imposed in September 2017 by then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and renewed in 2018.

'Dumb as a rock' and a 'crazed crying lowlife': How Trump has insulted former staff

On becoming president Donald Trump boasted that he only hired the best people.It was a claim that played into his preferred self-image of a business titan, delegating the running of his many big-money projects to shrewdly chosen managers who could be relied on to make the right calls.But the subsequent two and a half years have called that boast into question, and very often from an unlikely source - Mr Trump himself.Not only has there been a frantic turnover of senior staff, but some of the most withering condemnation of their talents has come from the very person who put them in post.Here’s what Donald Trump has said about some of his top appointments:Anthony Scaramucci (communications director) “Anthony Scaramucci is a highly unstable “nut job” who was with other candidates in the primary who got shellacked, & then unfortunately wheedled his way into my campaign. I barely knew him until his 11 days of gross incompetence-made a fool of himself, bad on TV. Abused staff,…....got fired. Wrote a very nice book about me just recently. Now the book is a lie? Said his wife was driving him crazy, “something big” was happening with her. Getting divorced. He was a mental wreck. We didn’t want him around. Now Fake News puts him on like he was my buddy!” Fired July 2017Rex Tillerson (secretary of state) “Rex Tillerson, a man who is ‘dumb as a rock’ and totally ill prepared and ill equipped to be Secretary of State, made up a story (he got fired) that I was out-prepared by Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Hamburg, Germany. I don’t think Putin would agree. Look how the U.S. is doing!” Fired March 2018Jerome Powell (chairman of the Federal Reserve) “This guy made a big mistake. The head of the Fed -- another beauty I chose!” Still in postSteve Bannon (chief strategist) “Michael Wolff is a total loser who made up stories in order to sell this really boring and untruthful book. He used Sloppy Steve Bannon, who cried when he got fired and begged for his job. Now Sloppy Steve has been dumped like a dog by almost everyone. Too bad!” Fired August 2017Omarosa Manigault Newman (assistant to the president) “When you give a crazed, crying lowlife a break, and give her a job at the White House, I guess it just didn't work out. Good work by General Kelly for quickly firing that dog!” Fired January 2018Jeff Sessions (attorney general) “I’m so sad over Jeff Sessions because he came to me. He was the first senator that endorsed me. And he wanted to be attorney general, and I didn’t see it.“And then he went through the nominating process and he did very poorly. I mean, he was mixed up and confused, and people that worked with him for, you know, a long time in the Senate were not nice to him, but he was giving very confusing answers. Answers that should have been easily answered. And that was a rough time for him.” Resigned at president's request November 2018Donald McGahn (White House counsel) I was NOT going to fire Bob Mueller, and did not fire Bob Mueller. In fact, he was allowed to finish his Report with unprecedented help from the Trump Administration. Actually, lawyer Don McGahn had a much better chance of being fired than Mueller. Never a big fan! - never a big fan. Fired October 2018Gary Cohn (chief economic adviser) “Gary Cohn, I could tell stories about him like you wouldn’t believe.” Resigned March 2018

Study Links Fluoridated Water During Pregnancy to Lower IQs

Photo Illustration by The Daily Beast/GettyAn influential medical journal published a study Monday that links fluoride consumption during pregnancy with lower childhood IQs—a finding that could undermine decades of public-health messaging, fire up conspiracy theorists, and alarm mothers-to-be.The research was expected to be so controversial that JAMA Pediatrics included an editor’s note saying the decision to publish it was not easy and that it was subjected to “additional scrutiny.”“It is the only editor’s note I’ve ever written,” Dimitri Christakis, editor in chief of JAMA Pediatrics and a pediatrician, told The Daily Beast. “There was concern on the journal’s editorial team about how this would play out in the public eye and what the public-health implications would be.”About three-fourths of the United States drinks fluoridated tap water—which the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared one of the 10 greatest public-health achievements of the 20th century because it dramatically reduces tooth decay.A handful of earlier studies have suggested that prenatal fluoride exposure could affect neurodevelopment, but many experts considered those to be substandard. The new study, vetted by the premier medical publisher in the U.S., is seen as more rigorous, although some experts found it unconvincing, saying the results were statistically borderline and the methodology was flawed.“When we started in this field, we were told that fluoride is safe and effective in pregnancy,” said study co-author Christine Till of York University in Toronto. “But when we looked for the evidence to suggest that it’s safe, we didn’t find any studies done on pregnant women.”They recruited 512 pregnant women from six Canadian cities and measured their exposure several ways: analyzing the amount of fluoride in their urine; looking at how much tap water and tea they drank; and comparing the fluoride concentration in the community drinking water.Then, when the women’s children were 3 or 4, the researchers gave them IQ tests and crunched the numbers to see if they could find any trends.“We saw an association between prenatal fluoride exposure and lower IQ scores in children,” study author Rivky Green said.Specifically, they found a 1 mg per liter increase in concentration of fluoride in urine was associated with a 4.5 point decrease in IQ among boys—though not girls. Another translation: The boys of mothers with the most fluoride in the urine had IQs about 3 points lower than the boys of mothers with the least amount.Although critics of the study pointed to the different results by gender as a red flag, when the researchers measured fluoride exposure by examining the women’s fluid intake, they found lower IQs in boys and girls. A 1 mg increase per day was associated with a 3.7-point  IQ deficit among both.While medical organizations are not advising that pregnant women avoid fluoridated water—and the study has no implications for the use of fluoride after birth—Green believes the results are significant enough to warrant a change in behavior. “What we recommend is lowering fluoride ingestion during pregnancy,” she said.Before publication, the study was subjected to two statistical reviews, with the researchers combing through the data to make sure that the results were not skewed by the mothers’ education, income levels, or other factors.The findings were astonishing to JAMA editors, who had been told throughout their medical training that fluoridation was completely safe and that opponents were wingnuts relying on “junk science.”“When I first saw this title, my initial inclination was ‘What the hell?’” Christakis said on a JAMA podcast. “For me, before there were anti-vaxxers, there were sort of anti-fluoriders.”In fact, fluoride has been a boogeyman in conspiracy circles for decades. When water fluoridation became widespread in the U.S. in the 1950s, some claimed it was a Soviet plot to physically and mentally weaken Americans. The far-right John Birch Society, among others, accused the U.S. government using fluoride to usher in socialism—a conspiracy theory famously satirized in Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 film Doctor Strangelove.Anti-Fluoriders Are The OG Anti-VaxxersSome modern conspiracy theorists have claimed fluoridated water is a form of mind control, while others falsely link it to Adolf Hitler. Some allege a corporate conspiracy: They think the dentistry industry or food companies are fluoridating water for their own purposes.Others still claim fluoridated water causes illness ranging from thyroid dysfunction to cancer. Infowars founder Alex Jones has frequently railed against fluoride in hyperbolic terms, and his site sells anti-fluoride products.Arguments that the government is medicating people against their will has had an impact. Over the past five years, dozens of U.S. cities have voted to remove fluoride from their drinking water, much to the dismay of federal officials who say the criticism is based on bunk.According to the CDC, a pile of studies show fluoridated water reduces cavities by 25 percent in children and adults, helps young children develop strong permanent teeth, and protects tooth enamel in grownups.It’s all but certain that anti-fluoride activists, no matter how outlandish their ideas, will seize on the new study results as proof they were right all along. The findings also pose a conundrum for health-care providers and their pregnant patients.“The effects of this study are comparable to the effects of lead, and if these findings are true there should be as much concern about prenatal fluoride exposure,” Christakis told The Daily Beast.The CDC declined to discuss the study, saying it does not comment on outside research.  The American Academy of Pediatrics said it is looking forward to future studies “to see if they demonstrate the same results or provide more conclusive evidence.” The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, which recommends that pregnant women use fluoridated toothpaste and mouth rinses, isn’t making any changes for now.“We wouldn’t change our guidelines without undertaking our thorough clinical-review process,” ACOG spokeswoman Kate Connors said.Sophia Lubin, an OB-GYN in Brooklyn, New York, said she’s never had a patient ask her about fluoridated water, but expects she will be questioned about it now.“As an obstetrician, you always have to think about two people—the mother and the baby,” she said. ”And oral health is important for mothers.”She anticipates telling women that if they are truly concerned, they can switch to bottled water during pregnancy. But she doesn’t think, at this point, that she will tell patients they should not drink from the tap.One part of the study that struck her was how much fluoride is in black tea, which soaks it up from soil. She said she is more likely to tell patients to cut back on tea than on water, since it’s important they stay hydrated.“This left me with a lot more questions than answers,” Lubin said.Linda Murray, senior vice president of BabyCenter, the online pregnancy hub, said concerns about fluoride will join an already long list of potential danger zones for expectant mothers. “It’s an anxious time for women as it is. Every pregnant woman wants to do everything she can do to have a healthy baby, and they’re hyper-aware,” she said.Pregnant women are already told to avoid too much coffee, raw sushi, fish high in mercury, deli meats, alcohol. But water is in a league of its own.“You can live without your California roll, but this is an everyday thing, and we tell pregnant people to stay hydrated,” Murray said.She suggested that until there is a broad consensus about how to respond to the study, women should focus on the things they can do to improve pregnancy outcomes: seeing a health-care provider early on, taking prenatal vitamins, eating healthy—and worrying less.“Stress and anxiety are not healthy for pregnancy,” she said.Meet The Putin-Loving Congressman Who’s Worried About Fluoride In Our Drinking WaterThe study authors noted a number of limitations, the most significant of which is that they did not assess how much fluoride the children were exposed to after birth.Dr. Stuart Ritchie, a neuroscientist at King’s College London, called the finding “pretty weak.”“They might be interesting as part of a larger set of studies on this question, but alone they shouldn’t move the needle much at all on the question of the safety of fluoride,” he wrote.But in an analysis that accompanied the study, Harvard Professor David Bellinger said that while “high-quality epidemiological studies” are needed, “the hypothesis that fluoride is a neurodevelopmental toxicant must now be given serious consideration.”Those kinds of studies take time—which doesn’t help millions of parents-to-be who may be looking for advice now.“The question that needs to be asked to every pediatrician, scientist, and epidemiologist is what they’re going to tell pregnant women,” said Christakis, who says he will advise his pregnant friends and family to avoid fluoridated water.“We can’t tell them to wait years for another study. They have to decide what to tell their patients now.”Read more at The Daily Beast.Get our top stories in your inbox every day. Sign up now!Daily Beast Membership: Beast Inside goes deeper on the stories that matter to you. Learn more.

Huawei just got the ban reprieve it needs to release the Mate 30 Pro and Mate X

August 19th marks the end of the temporary reprieve the US government gave Huawei after banning its access to American products, including hardware components as well as software licenses it needs to manufacture and sell all sorts of devices. But that doesn't mean Huawei will no longer be able to conduct business with US-based partners, as the Commerce Department was expected on Monday to extend the reprieve by several months. The extension was just announced, which means Huawei has ample time to launch two of its most important products of the year, including the Mate 30 Pro and Mate X foldable.The Mate X was recently delayed to November, while the Mate 30 Pro is rumored to be unveiled on September 19th, one day ahead of Apple's iPhone 11 release. In both cases, we're looking at dates beyond the initial August 19th deadline.When the ban was first announced, several US companies cut ties with Huawei, at least temporarily. It soon became clear that Huawei might not be able to manufacture and sell Android handsets under the ban, but the Chinese conglomerate made it clear that any phones launched with Google's Android would continue to receive software updates.Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters a few days ago that the "temporary general license" would be extended for 80 days.The same sources said the situation remains fluid and might change ahead of the deadline on Monday. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were expected to discuss the matter during a call over the weekend. While the ban on Huawei may be founded, there's reason to believe the company is being used as a bargaining chip in the US-China trade war.The government blacklisted Huawei, alleging that the company violated US sanctions against Iran. Moreover, Huawei had to defend itself against allegations that its telecom equipment, including smartphones and networking gear, could be used to spy on Americans.Without a reprieve extension, several of the major US tech giants doing business with Huawei would not be able to supply parts to the Chinese smartphone vendor. Moreover, Huawei's Mate 30 Pro and Mate X launch plans might be severely impacted.Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters last month that more than 50 applications for special licenses to sell to Huawei were received. Huawei spent about $11 billion in the US last year out of the total of $70 billion it paid for parts. Companies including Intel, Qualcomm, and Micron are among Huawei's suppliers, but they're hardly the only ones. Replacing its supply chain might be problematic, and the list of problems does include Google's Android and Microsoft's Windows. These two operating systems obviously power Huawei smartphones, tablets, and PCs.Ross said on Monday that the US government will indeed extend the reprieve by 90 days, Reuters reports. He also said that 46 Huawei affiliates have been added to the Entity List, raising the total to over 100 Huawei entities covered by the ban.It's unclear what will happen come November when the new deadline expires. "Everybody has had plenty of notice of it, there have been plenty of discussions with the president," Ross said, adding that the extension is supposed to help mainly those US customers who operate networks in rural America.The report notes that Huawei is still prohibited from buying American parts and components for new products without additional special licenses. Ross said that there were no "specific licenses being granted for anything" on Monday.

Sudan protesters, army postpone announcement on ruling body

Sudan's ruling military council said on Monday the country's pro-democracy movement has asked for a delay on the announcement of a joint ruling body because of last-minute, internal disputes over the opposition appointees. The new, 11-member body — called the sovereign council — is to rule Sudan for a little over three years until elections can be held. The body was envisaged under a power-sharing deal between the military and the protesters that sought to resolve weeks of standoff in the wake of the April ouster of Omar al-Bashir, the country's autocratic president of 30 years.

Angela Merkel successor in row over former intelligence chief

Angela Merkel’s chosen successor has become embroiled in a public row over a former intelligence chief — almost a year after a same official almost brought down Mrs Merkel’s government. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who took over as leader of Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU) last year and is also defence minister, appeared to call for Hans-Georg Maassen to be expelled from the party. But she came under immediate fire from her own party as powerful factions within the CDU backed the former intelligence chief. Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer was accused of damaging the party ahead of regional elections next month, and there were even calls for her to be replaced as CDU leader. Mr Maassen has now proved to be a thorn in the side of both Mrs Merkel and her protege. As head of the BfV domestic intelligence agency, he caused a government crisis last year when he publicly contradicted Mrs Merkel over the severity of far-Right protests in the city of Chemnitz. He denied that foreigners were being "hunted" in the streets, only for video evidence to later emerge supporting Mrs Merkel's version of events.  Forced into early retirement over that dispute, he has emerged as one of the chancellor's leading critics within the CDU. Hans-Georg Maassen, former domestic intelligence chief, has proved to be a thorn in the side of Mrs Merkel and her successor Credit:  UWE MEINHOLD/EPA-EFE/REX Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer appeared to signal her patience was at an end in an interview with a German newspaper group at the weekend, saying: “There are high hurdles to be cleared before you can expel some one from a party for good reason, but I do not see any attitude in Mr Maassen that really connects him with the CDU.” But her comments came under attack from the conservative wing of the party. “Mr Maassen enjoys great trust among voters and party members,” Alexander Mitsch, leader of the CDU's influential Values Union faction, said. “These mind games about expulsion from the party harm the CDU and could lead to a split.” Party leaders in eastern Germany, where the CDU faces a stiff challenge in regional elections this autumn, distanced themselves from Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer’s remarks. “This is the wrong way,” said Michael Kretschmer, the regional prime minister of Saxony and a key CDU figure. Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer attempted to row back, telling reporters: “I did not call for his expulsion from the party in the interview or anywhere else”. But her initial remarks were widely viewed as the latest in a series of mis-steps that have seen her approval ratings plummet since she took over as CDU leader.

German minister discusses Mideast conflict on Jordan visit

Germany's defense minister has reaffirmed its support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict during a visit to neighboring Jordan. Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi said they discussed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the "challenges we're facing in relation to Jerusalem," where tensions have risen over a holy site sacred to Jews and Muslims. Jordan strongly supports the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Merkel, Orban stress unity on Iron Curtain anniversary

German Chancellor Angela Merkel struck a conciliatory tone Monday alongside her Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban as they commemorated the 30th anniversary of a pivotal moment in the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989. The two leaders were speaking after marking the anniversary of the "Pan-European Picnic" held at the Austro-Hungarian border in 1989, which saw at least 600 East Germans cross the border and escape to freedom in the West. The first mass exodus of East Germans since the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961, it was seen as a key factor in the fall of the wall itself three months later.

Leaked 'no-deal' Brexit report warns of civil unrest and food supply disruptions

The U.K. government has looked to play down concerns about leaked documents that outlined preparations for Brexit, which included warnings about fuel, food and medicine shortages, as well as severe travel disruption and civil unrest if Britain leaves the European Union (EU) without a deal. The report, entitled "Operation Yellowhammer" and made by the Cabinet Office, was leaked to the Sunday Times, with the Oct. 31 deadline for leaving the EU just over 10 weeks away. The "Base Scenario" for a "no-deal" Brexit, which is the minimum expectation according to the report, suggests that "public and business readiness for no-deal will remain at a low level," as outlined in the Sunday Times.

Let's Not Turn Kashmir Into Another Gaza

The world is witnessing a rise of populist politics. The sphere of such politics is so vast that it produces leaders like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson from the developed nations as well as populists such as Imran Khan and Narendra Modi from the developing countries of the world. While the memories of the referendum for Brexit in the United Kingdom and the passage of anti-immigration legislation in the United States are still fresh, the world is currently listening to the beat of a similar drum in India in the face of the passage of a controversial resolution repealing Article 370 and Article 35A of the Indian constitution. This resolution has annulled the special status involving the semi-autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K;) and has placed the region directly under the Indian Union and the Indian Constitution. A landslide victory in the recent 2019 elections and subsequent powerful presence of the right-wing Hindu nationalist BJP in the Parliament facilitated the passage of this controversial resolution, fulfilling one of its main campaign milestones.According to the Indian perspective, the government of India will be able to control the region more strictly and unswervingly towards curbing the ongoing militancy, terrorism, and turbulence in the region of J&K;. Thus, BJP leaders and conservative Indian nationals are hailing the decision.Conversely, the opposition parties in India and the Muslim leaders of J&K; are protesting the repeal of Article 370 and 35A. Likewise, there has been a massive outcry from Pakistan against the repealing of the articles. Pakistan considers this a matter of violation of the letter and spirit of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution on Kashmir. For Pakistan, it is another instance of depriving Kashmiris of their inherent right to self-determination. In a letter to the United Nations, Pakistan has requested that the UN take formal notice of the issue.We opine that by repealing the articles, India has, in truth, deployed “lawfare” against Pakistan to counter Pakistan’s claims on the disputed territory of Kashmir. Lawfare—a mixture of two words, law and warfare—is a strategy of using the law as a weapon of warfare, according to retired Army Maj. Gen. Charles J. Dunlap Jr., which can also be waged without the presence of an actual armed attack. Therefore, it is also regarded as an element of hybrid warfare strategy in the contemporary era. The use of lawfare is not a new phenomenon. Nations have historically used lawfare to secure a competitive advantage against their rivals. For example, the Dutch East India Company hired Hugo Grotius in 1600 to propose a lawful policy to counter Portuguese control over the spice trade route along the Indian coast. Likewise, in the contemporary era, the People’s Republic of China has resorted to efficiently deploying lawfare as a strategy of achieving competitive advantage over its adversaries and neighboring countries. Similarly, Shurat Hadin of Israel has also resorted to offensive lawfare by filing lawsuits on companies that offered assistance to the flotilla from reaching Gaza. India has followed a similar style of using law for gaining a competitive advantage over its rival, Pakistan. India had also used lawfare earlier when it took Pakistan to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the arrest and death sentence of Indian-national Kulbhushan Jadhav, who was convicted by a military court in Pakistan. As per the last hearing of this case, the ICJ has asked Pakistan for a reconsideration of the death sentence of Jadhav. Hence, India has successfully used lawfare against Pakistan, and New Delhi’s recent repeal of Constitutional Articles 370 and 35A is a continuation of its lawfare strategy. Furthermore, since India used domestic law to repeal the decades-old special status of the internationally recognized and disputed territories of J&K;, it is crucial to investigate if India has violated any international law, norm, treaty or principal. One perspective states that India may have harmed the letter and spirit of international laws and norms because the territory of J&K; was given to India by the Maharaja of Kashmir on the conditions that were stipulated in Article 370 and Article 35A; however, the other dominant narrative affirms that India has not violated international law or any treaties because it has made the legislation for a region that was already under its legal control per the international law. Hence, the world is likely to not stringently oppose India's actions.Nonetheless, the repercussions of India’s lawfare strategy can be seriously damaging to regional peace. Firstly, while Pakistan has already embarked upon a grand strategic reset and is also mediating negotiations between the United States and the Taliban, India’s employment of lawfare could potentially harm the effectiveness of the U.S.-Taliban talks. This, by extension, is detrimental to world peace. For the two nuclear powers with China in proximity, any lawfare like this can have severe repercussions for not only the Kashmiris but also for the entire international community, especially for South Asia.Secondly, Kashmiri Muslims are feeling apprehension since J&K;’s Muslim majority status is under threat: the repeal of Articles 370 and 35A now permits Hindu nationals from other regions of India to buy property in the J&K; region. However, a rational analysis of this concern may suggest it as negligible, since Indians may not be interested in buying property in the J&K; region due to the ongoing upheaval and the deterioration of law and order. Moreover, Kashmiri locals’ protests against the decision to annul Kashmir’s special status and routine skirmishes between the Mujahideen party and the Indian Army should further discourage Indian nationals from buying property in the conflict-affected J&K; region. The only way through which the Indian government can create a scenario that is more conducive to the purchase of property in J&K; is through initiating a settlement plan in the manner done by Israel in the Palestinian region. Such a settlement plan would undoubtedly ignite the Kashmir issue more harshly and may threaten to create conditions for J&K; residents like what the Palestinians have faced in recent decades. The settlement plan may make J&K; take a shift from a Muslim majority region to a Hindu majority or to more like a balanced-ethnic populous region. The world needs to ponder on this before the Kashmir issue may become as serious, complex, and threatening to the regional and international peace as the Palestinian issue is.Thirdly, India’s waging of hybrid warfare through its lawfare strategy will most likely invite a reactionary policy from Pakistan. This can either be in the form of lawfare via approaching the ICJ or in some other hybrid-warfare endeavor. The indulgence into the latter option would cause both rival countries to engage in hybrid warfare against each other. As such a strategy also includes overt and covert operations, covert warfare missions may force the entire region to face uncalculated security risks. With both countries being nuclear powers with capable military forces, it is highly recommended that diplomacy should be reinitiated between them. In response to the growing tensions between India and Pakistan, President Donald Trump has reiterated his offer (a conditional offer only upon invitation) to mediate between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, but the Indian side has again rejected this offer; New Delhi continues to maintain that it has never asked any country to mediate on the Kashmir issue and that it seeks to resolve the issue bilaterally with Pakistan. It is likely that Modi may have kept President Trump’s eagerness to mediate on Kashmir issue in his mind. Therefore, the BJP has abruptly ended Kashmir’s special status to include the region within the Indian Union so that if the United States ever pressures India to accept Trump’s mediation on the Kashmir issue, India could counter that Kashmir is its internal region and, therefore, that any third-party mediation would be an offense and meddling in Indian domestic affairs. What is probable is that the United States and the European Union (EU) will not seek to reverse India’s decision to annul Kashmir’s special status, even though the United States has, earlier on, declared the entire Kashmir region as a disputed territory—including the Azad Kashmir of the Pakistani side. The non-reaction would be motivated by the significant trade volume and economic ties between India and the United States and the EU in comparison to the existing U.S. and EU trade with Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan is unlikely to receive substantial support from the international community on pressuring India over Kashmir. Yet what is certain is that regional tensions are escalating again. Post-revocation, India has added 35,000 troops to the J&K; region, cut off internet access, and placed several leaders under house arrest. Soldiers are alert on the Line of Control. It is unclear how Pakistan will respond: whether it would opt for a defensive lawfare strategy or would end up supporting covert operations as its hybrid warfare response to India. The use of force could be detrimental for either side. Pakistan’s lawfare response would be to use international fora such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court to prevent India from implementing its recent controversial legislation. It will be necessary for the United States and other world leaders to step-in for the sustenance of world peace. If they show any apathy, Pakistan’s engagement with India could serve to halt the delicate U.S.-Taliban peace negotiations. Additionally, the United Nations should use its discretion to cool the temperature between the two countries. The world certainly cannot afford to see another Gaza, forever causing the spillover of violence with no peaceful end in sight.Nasir Javaid is a graduate of Lahore University of Management Sciences and is currently working as a research associate in Qureshi Law Associates, Islamabad. He tweets at @Nasir_MinhasMuhammad Salar Khan is a Ph.D. Public Policy candidate and graduate research assistant at Schar School of Policy & Government, George Mason University. He tweets at @salarppolicyImage: Reuters.

Germany Readying Stimulus Plan as Contingency for Deep Recession

(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.The German government is getting ready to act to shore up Europe’s largest economy, preparing fiscal stimulus measures that could be triggered by a deep recession, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.The program would be designed to bolster the domestic economy and consumer spending to prevent large-scale unemployment, said the people who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Similar to bonuses granted in the 2009 crisis to prod Germans to buy new cars, the government is studying incentives to improve energy efficiency of homes, promote short-term hiring and boost income through social welfare, the people said.Bunds extended declines while the euro briefly rose as much as 0.2% to $1.1114 before slipping back.Signs are mounting that Germany’s rigid adherence to its balanced-budget policy is softening. On Sunday, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz suggested the government would aim to muster 50 billion euros ($55 billion) of extra spending in case of an economic crisis. Last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel said the economy is “heading into a difficult phase” and that her government will react “depending on the situation.”Germany’s central bank warned on Monday that the economy could be about to slip into recession, adding to the pressure on policy makers to ramp up support.With Europe’s largest economy slowing sharply and Merkel’s coalition becoming increasingly unpopular, pressure has increased at home and abroad for the famously frugal Germans to open the purse strings. Sticking to a balanced-budget policy for roughly a decade has allowed Germany to slash public debt to 60% of gross domestic product from 83% over the past decade.“Considering that industrial weakness has now persisted for one and a half years, it is remarkable how slowly the debate has moved so far,” Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note. “This is partly because the desire to cut government debt is deeply held by all mainstream parties and because the economic slowdown has felt “strange” so far, with spillovers to the labour market only beginning to emerge now, and in modest scale.”The hurdles for a stimulus program remain high. The government requires the lower house of parliament to declare a crisis so it can issue debt beyond the normal guidelines allowed during a recession. Without a sense of wide-spread malaise that approval could be difficult to justify, and Germany is still officially predicting an economic recovery before the end of the year.What Bloomberg’s Economists Say...“By the end of the year we estimate the German economy might be about 1% smaller than it could have been if the slowdown had been avoided. It could take spending of between 30 billion and 110 billion euros to reverse that damage.”--Jamie Rush.Read his GERMANY INSIGHTEven with German output contracting in the second quarter, officials in Merkel’s administration are wary that a knee-jerk spending spree would fuel imports and savings rather than bolster industrial output and protect jobs, said the people.Industrial capacity utilization would have to drop significantly for fiscal stimulus to have a meaningful impact, they said. Currently, spending in the amount of 1% of gross domestic product would boost growth by less than 0.5 percentage points, a ratio they consider insufficient.(Adds charts, quotes throughout.)\--With assistance from Carolynn Look and Jana Randow.To contact the reporter on this story: Birgit Jennen in Berlin at bjennen1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Raymond Colitt, Chris ReiterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Iran warns US against seizing tanker

Tehran said it had warned its arch-foe Washington against attempting to seize an Iranian tanker, which sailed into international waters Monday after being released from Gibraltar. Iran had been locked in a six-week standoff with US ally Britain since Royal Marines seized the tanker off British territory Gibraltar, on suspicion it was shipping oil to Syria in breach of EU sanctions. Little more than two weeks later, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps impounded the British-flagged Stena Impero tanker in strategic Gulf waters in what London called a tit-for-tat move.

Turkey removes 3 pro-Kurdish mayors from office

In a new government crackdown on a pro-Kurdish party, Turkey on Monday removed from office the elected mayors of three cities in the mostly Kurdish-populated southeast region over their alleged links to rebels, replacing them with government appointees. The mayors of the cities of Diyarbakir, Mardin and Van — members of the People's Democratic Party, or HDP — were sacked over alleged links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, and over evidence that they had allegedly aided the outlawed organization, an Interior Ministry statement said.

The Latest: Turkey says its army convoy targeted in Syria

Turkey says airstrikes have targeted a Turkish military convoy in Syria, killing at least three civilians. The Defense Ministry says 12 other civilians were wounded in Monday's strikes, which took place as the Turkish convoy was heading toward a Turkish observation post in the Syrian rebel-held stronghold of Idlib. Turkey has 12 observation posts in and on the edge of Idlib as part of an agreement reached with Russia.

Taliban Trolls Could Adopt New Terrorist Tactics in the Wake of America's Peace Plan

President Donald Trump wants out of Afghanistan by 2020. He may get his wish. Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. Special Representative to Afghanistan, has been negotiating with the Taliban for a nearly a year and is hopeful that the next round of talks will produce a “lasting and honorable” peace agreement.While peace would be wonderful, the United States should not be too hasty in reaching a deal. Two of the Trump administration’s top counterterrorism priorities—defeating ISIS and preventing Afghanistan from once more becoming a hub of global terror—are sometimes viewed as separate objectives. In fact, they are part of the same fight—and that fight is complicated.For starters, Al Qaeda and the Taliban aren’t the only extremist groups operating in Afghanistan. More than twenty foreign terrorist organizations or organizations that have provided support to terrorists are active there. One of the worst is the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), which is an Afghan affiliate of the Islamic State.When the organization was formed in January 2015, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi hand-picked Hafiz Saeed Khan to lead it. Khan was joined by Abdul Rauf, a former Guantanamo Bay detainee and member of the Taliban, who defected to al-Baghdadi’s cause.This leadership team did not last long. Both Rauf and Khan were killed in drone strikes; Rauf died in February 2015 and Khan died in July 2016. Yet the group was able to expand nonetheless. According to the United Nations, ISIS-K has the largest foreign fighter component of all the ISIS affiliates. Its troops, drawn from North Africa and Europe, the North Caucasus and South and Central Asia, now number between 2,500 and 5,000.ISIS-K’s targets have included NATO personnel, Shia worshippers, and the Taliban. According to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the group is responsible for one fifth of all civilian casualties in Afghanistan.ISIS-K largely operates in eastern Afghanistan, primarily in the Nangarhar and Kunar provinces, which are close to the border of Pakistan. Yet it also reportedly has a presence in neighboring provinces of Nuristan and Laghman, as well as the capital city of Kabul, where it has launched attacks.Now, there are fears ISIS-K has broadened its ambitions. It has claimed attacks in neighboring Pakistan, and Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, the head of U.S. Central Command, recently stated that ISIS-K “has aspirations to attack the United States.” A U.S. intelligence official based in Afghanistan characterized this summer’s attacks in Kabul as “practice runs” for operations in the United States and Europe, which this official described as “just a matter of time.” He also called ISIS-K “the most near-term threat to our homelands from Afghanistan.”That threat may have already turned to action in Europe. In April 2017, an Uzbek called Rakhmat Akilov began mowing down civilians on the streets of Stockholm, Sweden. Akilov said he carried out his attack in order to “build a caliphate according to Prophet Muhammad's prophecies.” Prior to his attack, Akliov was in contact with a fellow Tajik called Abu Osama Noraki. Akilov identified Noraki as an ISIS emir. Noraki is suspected of recruiting Tajiks to the cause via the smartphone walkie-talkie app Zello.True, it has not all been smooth sailing for ISIS-K. A UN assessment this July concluded that, “in 2019, ISIL-K suffered military setbacks and the intensity of its attacks lessened compared with previous periods.” ISIS was also weakened by a military skirmish with the Taliban in the summer of 2018 in the province of Jowzjan in the country’s north. This was erroneously claimed by the Pentagon to be a victory for Afghan security forces.The good guys, too, have recorded some victories over ISIS-K. According to the Long War Journal, the United States has successfully targeted four ISIS-K emirs since July 2016. The latest was Abu Saad Orakzai, who was killed during an August 2018 airstrike in the Nangarhar Province.Despite this, ISIS-K presents an ongoing regional and, potentially, transnational threat. As it has grown in manpower (from hundreds at its founding to thousands today), it has expanded the territory it controls in Kunar. It operates in rugged, highly advantageous terrain and is aggressively recruiting from university campuses.Perhaps, once the United States withdraws, the Taliban will crush ISIS-K as part of a campaign to expand its influence in Afghanistan even further. When speaking as head of U.S. Central Command, Army Gen. Joseph L. Votel noted that “ISIS-K is not a popular insurgency in Afghanistan. Everybody is against them.” Perhaps its presence in Afghanistan will prove to be fleeting.Yet several observers have pointed out that if the United States does negotiate a durable peace settlement in Afghanistan, then it possible that some of the most hardcore Taliban elements that want to carry on fighting may be drawn to the transnational jihadism of ISIS-K.Either way, any deal negotiated in Afghanistan must allow the United States to retain the ability to carry out counterterrorism operations there. After almost two decades of fighting, America’s desire to wind down its efforts is understandable. Yet, as it does so, it cannot ignore the emergence of a group that aspires to inflict the kind of suffering on the United States that led it into Afghanistan in the first place.Robin Simcox, The Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher fellow, specializes in the analysis of terrorism and national security risks.Image: Reuters

Time Is Running out for a Deal with North Korea

Time is running out to achieve a real breakthrough with North Korea. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have attempted multiple times to find a diplomatic solution over Kim’s nuclear arsenal. South Korean leader Moon Jae-in has also reached out to both sides, most recently declaring his dream to see both Koreas reunified by 2045. Unfortunately, the following day Moon was met by insults and missile launches as Pyongyang rejected further negotiations. All three countries—North Korea, South Korea, and the United States—need to be on board with any solution, and any of them could derail talks. And time is short.Although talks could fail because of each other’s actions, they are perhaps more likely to fail due to each country’s domestic politics. All three leaders know that their supporters want to see immediate progress and are getting impatient with repeated summits with little to show for it. Moreover, each government’s domestic opposition is also always ready to critique their diplomatic outreach. North Korea is a dictatorship, but even Kim must consider the mood in his inner circle and military as he attempts negotiations with America, their historic enemy. Furthermore, in the case of the two democracies, South Korea and America have upcoming elections that could change what course those countries take.North Korea has set the end of 2019 as a deadline for getting things done before they possibly return to intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear tests. After the collapsed summit with Trump in Hanoi, Kim announced, “We will wait for a bold decision from the U.S. with patience till the end of this year but I think it will definitely be difficult to get such a good opportunity as the previous summit.” There is a good chance that Pyongyang will follow through with shifting gears if no deal is reached by the end of 2019. Given that any deal takes at least months to negotiate—the Iran Deal took two years—it is highly unlikely that a major breakthrough will occur in under the next four months.However, what is possible is a deal that makes future escalation unlikely instead of focusing only on denuclearization. The question of what actually happens to all of Kim’s nuclear program and weapons could be addressed later. Instead, a deal could focus on a peace treaty or liaison offices. Another possibility is some limited denuclearization in exchange for some limited sanctions relief. Any of these deals would still be very difficult, but more doable within Kim’s deadline than a grand bargain that addresses everything.Trump might choose such an option to declare progress as the November 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections loom closer. Also, Kim might be persuaded to extend his deadline or say it was partially fulfilled—thereby claiming victory for himself domestically as well. Making real progress is necessary and in America’s interests. If North Korea becomes more aggressive in 2020, there is the risk of Trump returning to the threats of “fire and fury” that marked the tense months of 2017. High tensions coupled with harsh rhetoric from two nuclear-armed powers is not a good thing for anyone.If a deal is possible, it needs to happen soon. The problem is time. Washington needs to take advantage of the rare occurrence of having all three countries in agreement that diplomacy is a better option can confrontation. Something sufficient needs to be negotiated by the end of this year to buy a bit more precious time to work out any details. The unfortunate truth is that even then, it is a race against the clock. After scrambling for a deadline of fewer than four months, diplomats and working-level officials then have to keep in mind South Korea’s April 15, 2020 legislative elections—three-and-a-half months from the end of 2019. This is because if Moon’s party loses those elections, he might be forced to tamper down his strategy of outreach to Kim. On the other hand, if Moon has a strong enough showing, active negotiations could continue during the not-quite seven months before America’s November 3, 2020 elections. Yet, given the all-consuming nature of U.S. Presidential elections, Trump will have less bandwidth to focus on any negotiations with Kim and those months will go by very quickly.Ultimately, Washington should continue trying for a breakthrough while the current favorable political alignment still exists. At the very least, a minor deal would help to avoid a return to escalation spirals and threats. It is doubtful any deal could ever achieve full denuclearization, but at best a peace treaty or liaison offices would open a badly-needed channel of communication and crisis management during future emergencies. Given America’s experience of many close calls with previous nuclear-armed rivals, it would be wise to find a way to manage relations with North Korea better.Confrontation may resume, and Kim’s choices may relegate him to the penalty box indefinitely. That would be disappointing but not surprising. The good thing is that North Korea can be safely managed and communicated with. The real tragedy would be if all three countries let this opportunity slip away for lack of time and far-sightedness.John Dale Grover is an assistant managing editor at The National Interest and a Korean Studies Fellow at the Center for the National Interest. He is also a fellow at Defense Priorities. His articles have appeared in Defense One, Real Clear Defense, The Diplomat, The Hill, Fox News, and The American Conservative.Image: Reuters

Tiananmen Option: Would China Use Military Force in Hong Kong?

Will Xi Jinping deploy the People’s Liberation Army to suppress the peaceful protests in Hong Kong, or will Beijing opt for a more conciliatory approach to quieting the unrest that has rocked the city for the past several months? So far, China has refrained from pursuing the so-called “Tiananmen option” in Hong Kong, instead relying on local police and criminal gangs to mete out nonlethal violence against the city’s pro-democracy protesters. But if the movement for political reform in Hong Kong continues to gather strength—or if it shows signs of spreading to the Chinese mainland—then it might be difficult for China’s panicked leaders to resist using overwhelming force to crush the dissention.The dispute between Hong Kong’s protesters and the Hong Kong Government will be difficult to resolve through dialogue alone. This year’s unrest began as a reaction against Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s proposal for an extradition law between Hong Kong and the mainland, which would have made it possible for the Hong Kong authorities to send people accused of crimes to face trial in regular Chinese courts. If enacted, such a law would have undermined Hong Kong’s judicial independence and had a chilling effect on free speech, with activists in the territory always under threat of extradition to the mainland on politically motivated charges.However, the protesters’ demands are now much more expansive than just the withdrawal of the extradition bill. Among other things, they are calling for an independent investigation into police brutality, the release of political prisoners, and the introduction of fully democratic elections in Hong Kong.Lam and other Hong Kong leaders refuse to grant these demands. And even if they were inclined to appease the protesters, the full democratization of Hong Kong is obviously anathema to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime based in Beijing, which is becoming even less tolerant of political pluralism under the authoritarian leadership of President Xi. In a sense, the stakes are essentially a zero-sum game: either Hong Kong is allowed to proceed along a path to full democratization, free from the political influence of the communist mainland, or else the city’s inhabitants must accept their ultimate fate of becoming just another Chinese city.Can a violent crackdown be avoided? The answer, thankfully, is yes. Most obviously, the protests could simply fizzle out. After all, it is difficult to sustain a mass movement on the scale presently being witnessed in Hong Kong, especially in the face of concerted official opposition. At some point, the protesters’ will to continue fighting might evaporate, or else the protest’s leaders could opt to pursue less risky means of achieving long-term political reform. This is what the CCP is hoping for.Alternatively, the Hong Kong Government could be pressured to make concessions. It is not unthinkable, for example, that Xi could lean on Lam (or her successor, if she is pushed out of office) to permanently withdraw the extradition bill as a way to buy off a critical mass of dissenters. Something similar happened in 2003, when public demonstrations forced the Legislative Council of Hong Kong to withdraw a controversial bill that would have made it easier to punish Hong Kongers for “treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government.”If neither side backs down, however, then a Tiananmen-style solution to the standoff becomes increasingly likely. The deployment of the People’s Liberation Army would obviously be devastating for Hong Kong, almost certainly resulting in mass injuries, fatalities and arrests. A violent crackdown would also be a bad outcome for Xi’s regime. It would wreck the Hong Kong economy, alienate the population, and saddle Beijing with a decades-long task of political reconstruction and reconciliation—not to mention ruining Xi’s international image.But while deeply unattractive to China’s leaders, the Tiananmen option is far from the worst-case scenario from Beijing’s perspective. Preserving the territorial integrity of the People’s Republic, upholding the CCP’s political authority, and avoiding widespread unrest in mainland China are all considerations that President Xi values more highly than the fate of Hong Kong. If push came to shove, then overwhelming force might yet be viewed as necessary to avoid imperiling the regime as a whole.It should not be forgotten that the Tiananmen Massacre was a long-term political success for the CCP. In the summer of 1989, the upper echelons of the Chinese leadership had been split on whether to use violence to disperse the throngs of pro-reform campaigners that had gathered in Tiananmen Square to remonstrate with their leaders. But once military action had been ordered, Communist Party grandees quickly united behind the plan. The protests were crushed within days, with up to ten thousand civilians being killed—a vicious response that placed the Communist Party’s political authority beyond doubt for a generation to come.Despite the bloodshed (or perhaps because of it), China’s communist system survived 1989. The same cannot be said of the communist regimes of Central and Eastern Europe, which opted against the violent suppression of pro-democracy movements during the last months of that year. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev made clear that Moscow would tolerate (and even encourage) political reform made in response to popular demands for change, a policy that was lauded in the West as far more enlightened than the butchery on display in Beijing. Yet thirty years later, China is still a communist country and has risen to become a great power. By contrast, the Soviet Union no longer exists and most of Eastern Europe is part of NATO.From this view, Tiananmen worked. And what is more, the CCP regime managed to carry out the Tiananmen crackdown without incurring much in the way of long-term political costs. Domestically, Beijing has relentlessly suppressed discussion of the Tiananmen Massacre for over thirty years, effectively preventing those killed from becoming martyrs to a lasting popular cause. Overseas, the Tiananmen crisis drew stinging rebukes from foreign governments, media organizations and international nongovernmental organizations. Yet the opprobrium was relatively short-lived, and China became an increasingly important and active member of the international community over the course of the 1990s.If Xi orders a crackdown in Hong Kong, then he will have to do so in the full glare of the international community. He will be hated for it. But there is no reason to believe that China could not ride out the storm again. And while the advent of social media means that it would be far more difficult today for Beijing to suppress information about the slaughter of innocent civilians than it was in 1989, it is also true that the CCP has become more sophisticated in how it controls the media consumption of mainland Chinese, many of whom are already predisposed to view Hong Kongers with dislike and distrust.Of course, it is far from inevitable that Beijing will use tanks to suppress the protesters in Hong Kong. But at the end of the day, CCP decisionmakers value the security of the People’s Republic and their own political survival above all else. If the situation in Hong Kong ends up metastasizing into something that threatens these core concerns of the leadership in Beijing, then nobody should bet against a Tiananmen-style “solution” to the crisis. Worse still, there is every chance that China would get away with it.Peter Harris is an assistant professor of political science at Colorado State University. You can follow him on Twitter:@ipeterharris.Image: Reuters

Salvini May Have Missed His Moment to Shine

(Bloomberg) -- Want to receive this post in your inbox every day? Sign up for the Balance of Power newsletter, and follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and Facebook for more.Matteo Salvini’s drive to win outright power in Italy has run into trouble.When the anti-immigration deputy premier broke with his uneasy coalition partner, the Five Star Movement, in a bid to force a snap election earlier this month, he looked irresistible: His League party was close to 40% in the polls, Five Star was in disarray, and the opposition Democratic Party was still reeling from its electoral drubbing last year.But over the weekend signs emerged of a potentially paradoxical alliance to block the man who cites Donald Trump as his political inspiration — between the populist Five Star and the establishment Democrats.The real drama starts tomorrow when Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte addresses the Senate with the future of the government in the balance. If his administration falls, President Sergio Mattarella must choose whether to hold a new election or ask the anti-Salvini forces to form a governing coalition.The outcome of Italy’s latest drama has huge implications for Europe: whether its most dangerous pile of government debt will be managed by a hardliner bent on further tensions with Brussels or a weak coalition that will need all the help it can get. Global HeadlinesBite of the Apple | Trump offered a readout of his Friday-night dinner with Tim Cook, telling reporters the Apple CEO voiced concerns about chief competitor Samsung getting an edge because its products won’t be subject to tariffs when imported by the U.S. The majority of Apple’s products are made in China and face 10% levies before year’s end. The U.S. president said Cook made a “very compelling argument.”Trump said the U.S. is “doing very well with China, and talking!” but suggested he wasn’t ready to sign a trade deal, hours after his top economic adviser laid out a potential timeline to resume talks. Support for free trade among Americans is on the rise, as Trump’s backing dips to its lowest level in more than a year in a new poll. Subscribe to our Terms of Trade newsletter to receive all the big developments in your inbox each weekday.Youthful energy | Democrats’ prospects in the 2020 presidential election will turn on whether they can keep fanning the fires that drove young voters to the ballot box last year. A record jump in the 18-to-29 turnout helped the party win control of the House, and several signs point to a repeat of that trend. An uptick could prove particularly useful to Democrats in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire — states that were decided narrowly in 2016.Democratic candidates are spending the final weeks of summer raising cash in the enclaves of the rich and famous. Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford said he’s exploring challenging Trump for the Republican nomination but that he’d still vote for the president over a Democrat. Elizabeth Warren is chipping away at Joe Biden’s strongest selling point — that he’s the candidate most likely to beat Trump.Priming the pump | As Germany’s economy slips further toward a possible recession, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is starting to eye a fiscal stimulus package. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz floated the figure of 50 billion euros, days after Merkel said the country was heading for a difficult phase that might require action. But don’t expect an announcement until the most politically sensitive of all indicators comes under threat — jobs.Lesson plan | Senior Trump adviser Stephen Miller and other top aides spent months searching for a way to give states the power to block undocumented immigrant children from enrolling in public schools. The previously unreported aspect of the administration’s efforts to stem illegal border crossings was ultimately abandoned after its advocates were told repeatedly that any such effort would run afoul of a 1982 Supreme Court case.Tricky decision | Brazil is considering designating Lebanese group Hezbollah a terrorist outfit, as President Jair Bolsonaro aligns himself with Trump on foreign policy. As Samy Adghirni exclusively reports, the idea is being mulled at the highest levels but doesn’t have across-the-board support: It could strain ties with Hezbollah ally Iran, which imports $2.5 billion of Brazilian products a year, and displease Brazil’s influential Lebanese community.What to Watch This WeekFrench President Emmanuel Macron hosts Russian leader Vladimir Putin at his summer residence today, with Paris insisting it has no plans to mediate between Russia and other world powers. More moderate Hong Kong opposition leaders hope yesterday’s peaceful march of more than million people will help reset the protest movement after violent rallies threatened to sap public support. A tanker carrying Iranian oil has departed Gibraltar — likely headed for Greece — after being seized last month by U.K. forces on suspicion of hauling oil to Syria in violation of European sanctions. The U.S. attempted to block its release. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kicks off the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium Friday with a speech on the challenges facing monetary policy. Embattled Argentine President Mauricio Macri is grappling with the resignation of his economy minister and a double downgrade to the nation’s debt. Turkish authorities fired three elected mayors today and detained more than 400 people for alleged ties to a terrorist group, escalating tensions in the Kurdish-dominated southeast as the government looks to expand its military presence in Syria.And finally ... As leaders prepare to gather for the Group of Seven summit at the French seaside town of Biarritz, Trump’s again raising the possibility of targeting one of his host country’s most prized exports: wine. The U.S. president told donors at a Hamptons fundraiser this month he could impose a 100% tariff to retaliate for a tax on multinational technology companies, Jennifer Jacobs and Jenny Leonard report. It's unclear how serious Trump was. \--With assistance from Kathleen Hunter and Raymond Colitt.To contact the author of this story: Ben Sills in Madrid at bsills@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net, Rosalind MathiesonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Bees Are Dropping Dead in Brazil and Sending a Message to Humans

(Bloomberg) -- Death came swiftly for Aldo Machado’s honey bees. Less than 48 hours after the first apis mellifera showed signs of sickness, tens of thousands lay dead, their bodies piled in mounds.“As soon as the healthy bees began clearing the dying bees out of the hives, they became contaminated,” said Machado, vice president of Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul beekeeping association. “They started dying en masse.”Around half a billion bees died in four of Brazil’s southern states in the year’s first months. The die-off highlighted questions about the ocean of pesticides used in the country’s agriculture and whether chemicals are washing through the human food supply — even as the government considers permitting more. Most dead bees showed traces of Fipronil, a insecticide proscribed in the European Union and classified as a possible human carcinogen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.Since President Jair Bolsonaro took office in January, Brazil has permitted sales of a record 290 pesticides, up 27% over the same period last year, and a bill in Congress would relax standards even further. Manufacturers of newly permitted substances include Brazilian companies such as Cropchem and Ouro Fino, as well as global players including Arysta Lifescience Ltd., Nufarm Ltd. and Adama Agricultural Solutions Ltd. Giants such as Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF and Sumitomo also won new registrations.The fertile nation is awash in chemicals. Brazil’s pesticide use increased 770% from 1990 to 2016, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The Agriculture Ministry says that Brazil ranks 44th in the world in the use of pesticides per hectare and that, as a tropical country, it is “incorrect” to compare its practices with those of temperate regions.Still, in its latest food-safety report, Brazil’s health watchdog Anvisa found that 20% of samples contained pesticide residues above permitted levels or contained unauthorized pesticides. It didn’t even test for glyphosate, Brazil’s best-selling pesticide, which is banned in most countries.The silent hives, critics say, are a warning.“The death of all these bees is a sign that we’re being poisoned,” said Carlos Alberto Bastos, president of the Apiculturist Association of Brazil’s Federal District.Agriculture is the biggest contributor to Brazil’s growth, composing around 18% of the economy. Its power — from pop culture to politics — is unmatched. Major producers sponsor samba groups, as well as a nationwide “little Ag” school program and arguably, the most influential grouping in congress.Like U.S. President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro was elected with strong support from agribusiness and has expressed disdain for environmental concerns. “This is your government,” Bolsonaro promised lawmakers from the agriculture caucus, and his administration has allowed the industry wide leeway to use whatever chemicals it likes.About 40% of Brazil’s pesticides are “highly or extremely toxic,” according to Greenpeace, and 32% aren’t allowed in the European Union. Meanwhile, approvals are being expedited without the government hiring enough people to evaluate them, said Marina Lacorte, a coordinator at Greenpeace Brazil.“There isn’t another explanation for it, other than politics.” she said.Easing pesticide approvals was a campaign commitment for Bolsonaro. The agriculture sector has complained for years about slowness.“Registrations are the biggest barrier,” said Flavio Hirata, an agrochemical specialist at Allier Brasil consultancy. “The world’s largest pesticide market can’t be limited to a few companies.”Roughly half of the approvals are ingredients, not final products, said Andreza Martinez, manager for regulation at Sindiveg, a group representing pesticide producers. Varying chemicals is important as pests develop resistance to formulas, she said.“It brings more tools to farmers, but that doesn’t mean an increase in the use of products in the field,” she said.The variety, however, alarms toxicologists. “The higher the number of products, the lower our chances of safety, because you can’t control them all,” said Silvia Cazenave, a professor of toxicology at the Catholic Pontifical University of Campinas.Brazil’s health ministry reported 15,018 cases of agricultural pesticide poisoning in 2018, but acknowledged that this is likely an underestimate.One victim was Andresa Batista, a 30-year-old mother of three. In March 2018, she went to work picking soybeans on one of the plantations on the plains surrounding the capital, Brasilia. Soon, she started feeling dizzy and nauseated — and then she passed out.More than 40 farmhands fell ill that day, according to Batista, so many that they were divided into three groups and taken to different hospitals. The first medical team to attend Batista also became unwell, prompting the hospital to destroy her clothes, including her underwear. Still, Batista and most of the others were cleared to work again two days later. Almost as soon as they started, they collapsed.Over a year later, Batista still can’t work. She has difficulty eating without vomiting, can’t go to the toilet without medicine, can’t go in the sun without her skin swelling and she’s lost around 30% of her vision. Doctors can’t give her a prognosis due to uncertainty about the type of pesticide that poisoned her.“That day, our lives ended,” she said. “We’re not the same people we were before.”Court documents show that Dupont do Brasil S.A., the company that managed the field, agreed to pay damages of 50,000 reais ($13,000) to one of Batista’s coworkers that day. Batista said the company paid her 40,000 reais in an out-of-court settlement. Dupont’s press office said it could not comment on the case due to legal restrictions.The government said all cases of poisoning must be investigated, and it would introduce a decree to strengthen the oversight and training process for pesticide handling.Despite stories such as Batista’s, Congress may accelerate approvals yet further, rebranding pesticides as “agricultural defenses” and substituting the requirement to identify potential harm with a simple risk analysis.Brazil’s National Cancer Institute argued the measure would allow pesticides with “carcinogenic characteristics, endangering the population.” But Alceu Moreira, head of the lower house’s agriculture caucus, is certain it will become law.“There’s this need to create this international narrative that harms the image of Brazilian agriculture, as if we were using excessive levels of pesticides,” he said. “We’re not.”Brazilians may disagree. Carrefour Brasil, a supermarket chain, plans to increase its offering of organic products by 85% in 2019. Tatiana Carvalho, a 31-year old who runs a small organic delivery service in Brasilia, says sales have increased constantly since she started four years ago, despite the country’s sharp recession.She attributes her success to two things: greater consumer awareness and the government’s decision to authorize ever more pesticides.\--With assistance from Simone Preissler Iglesias and Rachel Gamarski.To contact the authors of this story: Bruce Douglas in Brasilia at bdouglas24@bloomberg.netTatiana Freitas in Sao Paulo at tfreitas4@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net, Stephen MerelmanReg GaleFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Feeding the future: Fixing the world's faulty food system

Feeding the future Fixing the world's faulty food system Feeding the future Fixing the world's faulty food system Nearly one billion of the world's population go hungry, while two billion eat too much, using up the planet's precious resources. Josh Wilson delves into the data exploring ways to solve the problem. This article has an estimated read time of seven minutes Fixing the world's "faulty food system" is increasingly being recognised as one of the key ways to fight climate change as well as tackle high rates of both malnutrition and obesity.  Each year 821 million people suffer from hunger – a figure that is rising despite an increase in global food production. And at the same time, around two billion people are eating too much of the wrong type of food.   The world is also facing an unprecedented climate emergency, with temperatures hurtling towards a dangerous tipping point.  Last week, a United Nations report concluded that eating less meat could help tackle the dual crisis of climate change and hunger. Switching to plant-based diets, the UN said, could both free up land and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.  With the global population set to hit almost 10 billion by 2050, the pressure to find new approaches to feed the world is not going to disappear.  Almost half the current global crop production goes to feeding livestock, however on average just 15 per cent of these calories are then passed on to humans when we consume meat. Climate change also poses a major threat to food security as increasingly common extreme weather events devastate crop land. Simultaneously, agriculture is one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. “At one level we don't need to grow any more, we should stop feeding our food to bloody livestock and then we've got all the calories we need,” Tim Benton, professor of population ecology at Leeds University, told The Telegraph.  “Food production, and especially livestock production, is a major driver of climate change, biodiversity loss, water  and air quality degradation and soil degradation. We have to start actually recognising that we can’t carry on as we are,” Prof Benton added.  But is the solution to such complicated challenges really as simple as changing how we eat?  One in ten suffering from chronic hunger Hunger is a part of everyday life in certain parts of the world – 11 of the 15 most undernourished countries are in Africa, with the worst rates found in the Central African Republic where three in every five people suffer malnutrition. Globally over one in ten people suffer from chronic undernourishment In Yemen, some 85,000 children are thought to have died from extreme hunger between April 2015 and October 2018 as the country struggles with civil war and military intervention from Saudi Arabia. But many countries with high levels of hunger also produce plenty of food. Pakistan was the ninth biggest producer of beef in 2013 – yet more than one in five of their population suffer from chronic undernourishment. Experts have warned that future conflicts will increasingly focus on a struggle for dwindling resources, especially food and water, unless more urgent action is taken on a global scale. “The most potent resource for any national government is access to energy, water and food, and so as the world gets more complicated these sorts of things are going to matter more and more,” said Prof Benton. Insatiable appetites for meat The livestock industry is viewed by many experts as a serious threat to food security because of its size and unsustainability, as well as the negative effects on our health of a diet overly rich in meat. Every one and a half years, more animals are slaughtered than the total number of humans who ever lived.  As countries become wealthier their eating habits shift towards more meat-based diets, fuelling a massive expansion in livestock farming and contributing some 8.1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2010. “By 2050 we're forecast to be consuming 60 per cent more meat and dairy, a staggering 1.2 trillion litres of dairy milk and 500 billion kilograms of meat per year,” said Joseph Poore, researcher at the University of Oxford, warning that such growth is unsustainable. Meat production has skyrocketed to keep up with population growth With half of global crop production already going to feed livestock such a scenario could have catastrophic consequences, warn scientists. In the UK each person consumes an average of 81.5 kg of meat each year, up from 69.2 kg in 1961, despite associated health risks such as obesity, diabetes and bowel cancer. Professor Benton said: “If you look at the UK, the amount of money that it’s costing us to make people better through the health service is around 37 per cent of all our tax revenue and that’s going up fast. “That’s partly because of an ageing population, but it’s also partly because of malnourishment in the form of obesity,” he said.  The majority of population growth will occur in less developed nations Drought causes over 80 per cent of agricultural damage Agriculture, especially livestock production, is a major driver of climate change, but it also one of the most sensitive industries to the effects of changes to weather. Extreme climate disasters such as floods, storms and droughts are on the rise, with an average of 213 such events occurring each year between 1990 and 2016. These events often devastate wide areas of delicate crop land. This harms agricultural yields, leading to food price hikes and loss of income, reducing access to food. This captures some of the complexity of the system and its highly integrated nature. It also highlights how the problem of feeding the population won't be solved by simply growing more food. There has been average of 213 extreme climate disasters per year Reports of crop damage due to climate change are becoming increasingly common, with farmers in Ghana, Tanzania and Nigeria recently describing delays to the start of the rainy season, abnormal mid-season heatwaves and high-intensity rainfall. These have all led to crop losses. Increasing water scarcity is also a serious concern as the agricultural industry accounts for 70 per cent of global water use. Groundwater has already been depleted worldwide for crop irrigation, and as these sources run dry it will increasingly limit where we can grow crops. Meanwhile, as the planet continues to warm, sea levels are predicted to rise, putting low-lying farms at considerable risk, while also restricting future expansion. Scientists have warned that any initiatives to ensure future food security must account for global climate change and seek to minimise agriculture’s contribution. Changing diets and tackling poverty key "In 20 years time we will have 10 billion people on the planet and we simply can’t sustain those numbers without changes in diet," says Simeon Van Der Molen, founder of Moving Mountains, a British manufacturer of plant-based burgers. “Cellular agriculture is the future.” Plant-based meat alternatives such as the 'Impossible Burger' have been touted as a viable and much more sustainable alternative to conventional meat. The Impossible Burger bleeds like real meat Some of these products have already started to get a run out on Britain's high streets. Greggs  achieved notable success with its vegan sausage roll and KFC recently announced it is to begin trialling a vegan Imposter Burger, featuring a bespoke Quorn fillet. Newer plant-based products such as the 'Impossible Burger' are now able to get much closer to the sensory profile and texture of meat, making it more appealing to many consumers. They have a similar nutritional profile to meat but require significantly less water and energy to produce. Insects have also been touted as a potential alternative to meat. They have the advantage of being high in protein and also have a much higher conversion rate of energy input to received calories. However, insect-based meat replacements remain a very niche consumer product and public acceptance in the West remains a long way off. But there is another major emerging food technology which has expanded rapidly in recent years and has drawn lots of interest and corporate investment, that of lab grown meat. This 'meat' is grown in special bioreactors from cells extracted harmlessly from livestock. The result is a product that is almost indistinguishable from conventionally produced meat. From petri dish to plate: how to grow a burger in a lab Leaders in the cultured meat industry are confident that their product has the edge over other meat alternatives because it has the same taste and texture profile as the real thing. “We’re pretty optimistic that as long as it really has the same taste, texture and smell, we think that most consumers will favour the product that doesn’t have all the guilt surrounding it in terms of animal welfare and environmental damage," said Sarah Lucas, head of operations at Mosa Meat, the company responsible for the first lab-grown hamburger. Lab-grown meat is still a few years from consumer availability and the technology still has some way to go - that first lab grown hamburger cost €250,000 to produce - but management consultant AT Kearney predicts that it will make up over a third of global meat supply by 2040. Meat consumption calculator However Prof Benton has warned that systemic changes to the whole agricultural system will be needed to achieve sustainable and nutritious food security. He says that tackling poverty will be key in this battle: “If people are too poor to buy a healthy diet, why does everybody leap to the conclusion that it’s the food price that’s the problem and not the poverty? “For me, the challenge of feeding 10 billion people is not how do we double agricultural production of the wrong things. It is how to do this systemic transformation so people can eat healthily in a way that doesn’t create a lot of waste and doesn’t create a lot of unsustainability.” Protect yourself and your family by learning more about Global Health Security Global Health Bulletin REFERRAL article

Iran warns US against seizing tanker at sea as re-named Grace-1 1eaves Gibraltar

Iran warned the US on Monday not to try to intercept the Grace 1 oil tanker at sea as it finally set sail from Gibraltar after more than a month in British custody.  Six weeks after the Iranian tanker was seized by Royal Marines, it sailed out of Gibraltar’s waters and headed towards Greece under the new name Adrian Darya 1.  The US made an eleventh-hour effort last week to stop the ship from leaving, arguing that it was aiding Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which the US considers to be a terrorist group. But judges in Gibraltar rejected the application as the British territory is not in US jurisdiction. Iran’s foreign ministry warned there would be “heavy consequences” if the US navy tried to seize the ship in the Mediterranean. " Iran has issued the necessary warnings through official channels, especially the Swiss embassy, to American officials not to commit such an error because it would have heavy consequences," a foreign ministry spokesman said.   Western navies rarely intercept ships in international waters unless they are suspected of time-sensitive crimes like slave trafficking or piracy. The US has not said if it intends to take further action.  A Royal Marine boarding party seized the Grace 1 after it sailed into Gibraltar's waters on July 4, sparking a weeks long standoff between Tehran and London that culminated in Iran seizing a British-flagged tanker, the Stena Impero, in the Persian Gulf.  The governments in Britain and Gibraltar said they suspected the vessel of carrying oil to Syria, in breach of EU sanctions against Bashar Assad's regime.  Iran accused Britain of acting on behalf of the United States, which has tried to blockade Iranian oil exports as part of a "maximum pressure" policy against Tehran, and sent revolutionary corps gunboats to seize the Stena Impero in the gulf on July 19.   Iran gave no indication on Monday when, or if, it was planning to release the British-flagged tanker. The foreign ministry said Tehran was waiting for a court decision on alleged maritime violations by the Stena Impero but Iranian officials have made clear in the past that the ship was taken in a tit-for-tat over the Grace 1.  "The crisis with Britain is not over. Britain has the primary responsibility for ending the oil tanker crisis," said Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, an Iranian MP. “Until the Iranian oil tanker arrives at its destination the British must help end the crisis.” Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, said he would not reveal the Grace 1’s exact destination out of fear the US would impose sanctions to stop it delivering its cargo of 2.1 million barrels of oil. "We are happy this ordeal has ended and I hope this will lead to less escalation,” Mr Zarif said. He also said Iran would not take military action against the US. “We have never done that, in the past 250 years. We have defended ourselves. And we have taught good lessons to those who invaded us.” Donald Trump suggested he was open to a détente and negotiations with Iran, similar to those he is pursuing with North Korea. “North Korea has tremendous potential. Also, Iran has tremendous potential, and we can do something very fast, but they don’t quite know how to begin because they're proud people,” Mr Trump said.

Iranian tanker sets sail from Gibraltar after US request to detain it is rejected

The Iranian tanker caught in a standoff between Tehran and the West left Gibraltar on Sunday night, shipping data showed, hours after the British territory rejected a US request to detain the vessel further. British Royal Marines seized the tanker in Gibraltar in July on suspicion it was carrying oil to Syria, a close ally of Iran, in violation of European Union sanctions. That triggered a series of events that have heightened tensions on international oil shipping routes through the Gulf, including the seizure of the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero, which remains held by the Islamic Republic. Analysts had said the Iranian ship's release by Gibraltar could see the Stena Impero go free. The Grace 1, renamed the Adrian Darya 1, left anchorage off Gibraltar around 11pm, Refinitiv shipping data showed. Its destination was not immediately clear. A crew member looks over the side of the tanker at its new name Credit:  JON NAZCA/ REUTERS Iran's ambassador to Britain, Hamid Baeidinejad, had written on Twitter earlier that the vessel was expected to leave on Sunday night, adding that two engineering teams had been flown to Gibraltar. The tanker's detention ended last week, but a federal court in Washington on Friday issued a warrant for the seizure of the tanker, the oil it carries and nearly $1 million. Gibraltar said on Sunday it could not comply with that request because it was bound by EU law. "The EU sanctions regime against Iran – which is applicable in Gibraltar - is much narrower than that applicable in the US," the government said in a statement. "The Gibraltar Central Authority is unable to seek an Order of the Supreme Court of Gibraltar to provide the restraining assistance required by the United States of America." Washington had attempted to detain the Grace 1 on the grounds that it had links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which it has designated a terrorist organisation. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that "Iran would like to talk," attributing the willingness to economic conditions in the country, when asked on Sunday by reporters about the status of the tanker. “Iran would like to talk but they just don’t know how to get there. They are very proud people. But their economy is crashing, crashing. “Inflation is through the roof. Their economy is doing really badly, they are not selling oil. We put the sanctions on, the oil is selling much less, much less than we thought. It’s like a trickle. “They very much want to make a deal, they just don’t know how to make a call, because they are proud people and I understand that. “But I have a feeling that things with Iran could work out, or maybe not." Iran has denied the tanker was ever headed to Syria. Tehran said it was ready to dispatch its naval fleet to escort the tanker if required. "The era of hit and run is over ... if top authorities ask the navy, we are ready to escort out tanker Adrian," Iran's navy commander, Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, was quoted as saying by Mehr news agency. Earlier on Sunday, video and photographs showed the tanker flying the red, green and white flag of Iran and bearing its new name, painted in white, on the hull. Its previous name, 'Grace 1', had been painted over. Rising tensions between UK, US and Iran The initial impounding of the Grace 1 sparked a diplomatic row that escalated when Tehran seize a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf two weeks later. That tanker, the Stena Impero, is still detained. The two vessels have since become pawns in a bigger game, feeding into wider hostilities since the United States last year pulled out of an international agreement to curb Iran's nuclear programme, and reimposed economic sanctions. Iran has denounced US efforts to set up an international maritime security coalition in the Gulf and insisted regional countries could protect the strategic waterway and work towards signing a non-aggression pact. On a trip to Kuwait on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet that "Iran's proposal for Regional Dialogue Forum and non-aggression pact trumps reliance on extraneous actors". The Grace 1 had originally flown the Panamanian flag but Panama's Maritime Authority said in July that the vessel had been de-listed after an alert that indicated the ship had participated in or was linked to terrorism financing.

Indonesian police regain control after demonstrators torch local parliament

Indonesia's police chief said on Monday that authorities in the easternmost Papua region were regaining control after protesters set fire to tyres and torched a local parliament building over the recent detention of scores of Papuan students. A separatist movement has simmered for decades in Papua, while there have also been frequent complaints of rights abuses by Indonesian security forces. The spark for the latest anger appears to have been the detention of Papuan students in Surabaya, East Java, for allegedly bending a flagpole in front of a dormitory during the celebration of Indonesia's Independence Day on Aug. 17, according to activists. Police fired tear gas into the dormitory before arresting 43 students, Albert Mungguar, an activist, told a news conference on Sunday. He said students had been called “monkeys” during the operation. On Monday morning, Papuan protesters set fire to a parliament building and blocked streets in the provincial capital of West Papua, Manokwari, by burning tyres and tree branches, paralysing the town, Deputy Governor Mohamad Lakotani told Kompas TV. Television footage showed a group of about 150 people marching on the streets, as well as footage of smoke billowing from a parliament building. “According to the report I got from the West Papua police, the situation has gradually turned conducive,” National Police Chief Tito Karnavian told reporters, adding officers from other parts of eastern Indonesia could be brought in if needed. A police water cannon is parked on the street as police officers take a rest shortly after a protest in Manokwari, West Papua Credit: Rex Papua Governor Lukas Enembe said Papuans were angry because of “the extremely racist words by East Java people, the police and military”, he told broadcaster TVone. East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa in a televised statement said: “We apologise because this does not represent the voice of the people of East Java” and described the slur as “someone's personal outburst of emotion”. The incident also triggered a protest in Jayapura, the capital of neighbouring Papua province, where TV footage showed thousands peacefully protesting on the streets. Papua police spokesman Ahmad Kamal said by telephone 500 people were involved in the demonstration in Jayapura. “It's been a while since I saw West Papuans this angry...,” Veronica Koman, a human rights lawyer who focuses on Papua, said on Twitter. “The liberation movement is entering a new chapter.” Koman posted videos on Twitter that she said were taken in Jayapura of people yelling “free Papua”. In one of the videos, a group of teenagers can be seen carrying a Morning Star flag, which is a banned symbol used by supporters of independence. Papua and West Papua provinces, the resource-rich western part of the New Guinea island, make up a former Dutch colony that was incorporated into Indonesia after a widely criticised U.N.-backed referendum in 1969. President Joko Widodo has sought to ease tension in the restive region, including by building the Trans Papua highway to spur economic activities and improve people's welfare. However, unrest has persisted and separatists killed a group of construction workers in December 2018, triggering a military crackdown that displaced thousands in the Nduga area.